The great enigma of copper: beating JPM and GS' analysts after only one mon

The Great Enigma of Copper: Beating JPM and GS' Analysts After Only One Month?

By Matteo Nicoletti / 03 Jan 2026

Copper is surely revealing itself as the great wildcard of this very early 2026 in the industrial commodities market. The metal is currently sitting close to $12,400 per metric tonne, after hitting a record of $12,960 on Monday. Overall growth throughout 2025 reached 42%, the second largest number in the new century after 2009's, which witnessed a historical surge right after the Great Financial Crisis.

Copper price dynamics, such as every other commodity, are strictly connected to supply-demand balance: the metal has reached an unprecedented level of importance, being fundamental in most sectors that are currently the focus of major investments and development. Renewable energy, with solar panels and wind cells; batteries and the evolving world of EVs, which use four times more copper than traditional automobiles; the construction of huge data centers driven by the AI boom, are rapidly adding to traditional copper-hungry sectors such as transportation and general construction.

On the other side, supply is struggling to keep up, in light of major disruptions occurring in major copper producing countries, such as employers strikes in Chile and mines shutdown in Indonesia; or green policies and regulatory changes impacting production levels. These events led most of researchers to estimate a global copper deficit at LME warehouses in 2026, justifying the price spikes.

Not all analysts, however, seemed to agree with this view around one month ago: Goldman Sachs' researchers, for instance, not only estimated a 160 kilotonnes surplus in 2026, but ventured to say that no deficit will hit the global market balance before 2029. As a consequence, they forecasted copper prices to stop at $11,400 per mt quote entering 2026, then to fall below $11,000 throughout the year.

JP Morgan's analysts, instead, were way more pessimistic, estimating a 330 kilotonnes copper deficit for the year and prices reaching $12,500/mt only in the second quarter of 2026, after not overcoming the $12,000 quote in Q1. Ultimately, they would be averaging about $12,075/mt for the whole 252 trading days due to a decline in Q4 to $11,800/mt.

Concerning the LME futures curve, it is currently providing us a backwardated view, underscoring significant fears of supply shortages and predominating convenience yield, namely users willing to pay a premium to have physical metal on hand now, in order to avoid production stoppages.

What is surprising, therefore, is not the extreme volatility of the commodity, but the speed with which it has defied the estimates of the world's most renowned researchers. Meanwhile, the futures curve speaks for itself: firms will have to be able to navigate a time when copper stocks will be at their lowest and paid for like gold.